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Prediction for CME (2021-05-22T16:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-22T16:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16946/-1
CME Note: Ejected material is seen in SDO AIA 193 and 304 after 05-22T15:21Z mostly to the West from AR 2824. ARRIVAL: Teresa Nieves-Chinchilla: signatures of flux rope(s) between 05/26 ~ 18 hrs to 05/27 ~ 5:00 hrs, but it may be either two flux-ropes or a single complex structure with internal signatures of interaction. First rotation Bz north for ~3 hrs starting after ~18 hr and then ~19 hrs another structure with SN rotation in Bz. The second one displays low solar wind temperature more consistent with the magnetic cloud/flux rope expected signatures. Note that bulk velocity for the whole period is increasing - also a signature of compression, so it seems that there is interaction.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T11:37Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-26T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2021-05-26T02:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 4
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 70

:Issued: 2021 May 24 1642 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/bul
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# SIDC Weekly bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic activity             #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
WEEK 1064 from 2021 May 17
SOLAR ACTIVITY
---------------
The week started with only one active region visible, NOAA AR 2822 (Catania 93, alpha
magnetic field configuration), it did not produce any significant flares. On May 17
NOAA AR 2824 rotated over the west limb (Catania 96, beta magnetic field
configuration), already producing C-class flares. After one day it decayed to alpha
magnetic field configuration and produced only B-class flares. This region then
increased in complexity, its photospheric magnetic field was classified as beta gamma
by May 22, it produced then three M-class flares: M1.1 peaking at 17:11 UT on May 22,
M1.4 flare peaking at 21:36 UT on 22 May, M1.1 peaking at 11:08 UT on May 23.Three
(partially) Earth directed CMEs erupted on 22 May. Two of them are associated with
M-class flares. The first one starting at 09:12 UT (LASCO C2) with 300 km/s and about
90 degrees angular width, expected arrival at 23 UT on 26 May. The second one at
16:23 UT (COR2A), with a speed of 460 km/s and an expected arrival time at 02 UT on
26 May. The last one started at 22:00 UT (COR2A), with a speed of 629 km/s, and
expected to arrive at 13 UT on 25 May. The last two were faint in LASCO and better
visible in COR2. The speed of the CMEs increased from the first to the third, so they
will encounter and interact on their way to the Earth. On 23 May one more (partially)
Earth directed CME was observed, at 11:00 UT on COR2A, expected on 26 May at 03 UT,
with speed 680 km/s.

Lead Time: 86.18 hour(s)
Difference: 9.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2021-05-22T21:26Z

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